RISK-ACADEMY on LinkedIn: Join the only WhatsApp and Telegram groups where we banish outdated risk… (2024)

Graeme Keith - How expert are your experts? #RAW2021Whenever subject matter experts make quantitative assessments in a business process, we check those assessments after the fact and report back on precision and bias so that our SMEs can improve their future assessments. This is rather more difficult where the assessments are probabilities because the verification is necessarily statistical. Traditional methods can reveal optimism and pessimism in predictions, but they are not so effective at revealing cases where the impact of positive or negative evidence is over- or under-incorporated into an assessment and probabilities are either polarized - i.e. too extreme - or sitting on the fence - i.e .not extreme enough. They also demand substantial numbers of assessments.I present an alternative approach to exposing systematic bias, which is based on a deeper look at how systematic bias effects probabilities. The tool produces a "bias footprint" which in a single figure shows not only the optimism or pessimism in a sequence of assessments, but also the tendency to polarize or fence-sit, together with a clear sense of the extent to which the data support those conclusions, which is dependent on both the number of assessments and the consistency of the bias.I will demonstrate the method on Hubbard Decision Research's FrankenSME aggregation methodology, showing how the aggregation method substantially improves predictions by removing systematic biases.Join this channel to get access to perks:https://www.rfr.bz/llo3qtzONLINE TRAINING: https://www.rfr.bz/llo3qu0OFFICIAL BLOG: https://www.rfr.bz/llo3qu1RAW2021 https://www.rfr.bz/llo3qu2 Check out awesome risk management quantitative software https://www.rfr.bz/llo3qu3 Enhance your company's risk management practices and improve the quality of your board's decision making with our advanced risk governance course, which covers everything from traditional risk management elements to advanced risk oversight and includes practical case studies and additional resources to strengthen your board's oversight. https://www.rfr.bz/llo3qu4 Subscribe to RISK-ACADEMY YouTube channel for more videos

Risk management techniques for strategic and operational decisions are the same #shortsThis clip underscores the importance of recognizing that risk management should be tailored for each significant decision rather than following a one-size-fits-all approach, emphasizing a versatile strategy over conventional hierarchical models.Join this channel as a member for new videos, RAW workshops or online courses https://www.rfr.bz/llo3qlm Read more risk management articles at https://www.rfr.bz/llo3qlnWatch the best practical workshops and case studies from RISK AWARENESS WEEK https://www.rfr.bz/llo3qloDOWNLOAD our risk management book for free. Number 1 in Google search globally with 200000+ downloads https://www.rfr.bz/llo3qlpOr check out online short courses on Udemy https://www.rfr.bz/llo3qlqCheck out awesome risk management quantitative software https://www.rfr.bz/llo3qlr Subscribe to RISK-ACADEMY YouTube channel for more videos

Joe Scott - Forest fires and floods are not the same #RAW2021Of course forest fires and floods are not the same, yet in some risk modeling methods they are treated similarly. That is, for each section in a geographical area, one can calculate the probability of a fire of a given intensity or a flood of a given depth, and then estimate the economic consequences of each. The problem with this approach is that floods and fires have different spatial correlations. Floods are perfectly spatially correlated; in other words, if there is a 3-foot flood at my house, there is a 3-foot flood at my neighbor’s house. But forest fires have a much more complicated spatial correlation structure, dependent on fuel load, wind direction, canyons, etc., meaning that my house might burn down but my neighbor’s might survive.Today, massive computer simulations of fire progression can, in theory, deliver stochastic libraries of potential fire progression, which can be used to develop mitigation strategies superior to the one-size-fits-all approach delivered by other risk models.Join this channel to get access to perks:https://www.rfr.bz/llo16m2ONLINE TRAINING: https://www.rfr.bz/llo16m3OFFICIAL BLOG: https://www.rfr.bz/llo16m4RAW2021 https://www.rfr.bz/llo16m5 Check out awesome risk management quantitative software https://www.rfr.bz/llo16mg Enhance your company's risk management practices and improve the quality of your board's decision making with our advanced risk governance course, which covers everything from traditional risk management elements to advanced risk oversight and includes practical case studies and additional resources to strengthen your board's oversight. https://www.rfr.bz/llo16mh Subscribe to RISK-ACADEMY YouTube channel for more videos

ChanceTALK 26The future of risk management integration into decision making and key processes. Don't miss Sam Savage and Alex Sidorenko sharing new models, tools and techniques to build future proof risk management. Subscribe to RISK-ACADEMY YouTube channel for more videos

Curing the Flaw of Averages in Hazard RiskDr. Sam Savage discusses how to cure the flaw of averages in hazard risks. https://www.rfr.bz/llo14g5 #probabilitymanagement

Susan Daniels - preparing for CEO meetingsTransform risk management into a strategic asset by embracing it across all levels of decision-making.Join this channel as a member for new videos, RAW workshops or online courses https://www.rfr.bz/llo14dy Read more risk management articles at https://www.rfr.bz/llo14dzWatch the best practical workshops and case studies from RISK AWARENESS WEEK https://www.rfr.bz/llo14e0DOWNLOAD our risk management book for free. Number 1 in Google search globally with 200000+ downloads https://www.rfr.bz/llo14e1Or check out online short courses on Udemy https://www.rfr.bz/llo14e2Check out awesome risk management quantitative software https://www.rfr.bz/llo14e3 Subscribe to RISK-ACADEMY YouTube channel for more videos

Reframing everything you know about risk management in a 1.5 hours – watch the full video from RISK-IN conference in ZurichRisk management is often framed as a separate discipline focused on managing risks through risk registers, heat maps, risk frameworks and qualitative risk reports. This is like confusing astronomy and… Continue reading Reframing everything you know about risk management in a 1.5 hours – watch the full video from RISK-IN conference in Zurich Join the mailing list for more articles and risk events

100 AI strategies that will transform your risk taking skillsWe’ve hit an exciting milestone with the first 100 registrations for RISK AWARENESS WEEK 2024! To me, each registration represents a commitment to advancing risk management and decision-making . And… Continue reading 100 AI strategies that will transform your risk taking skills Join the mailing list for more articles and risk events

Risk management should be driven by decision not by org structure #corporategovernance #shortsContemplating risk management through a decision-focused lens can change everything. Ignore levels; focus on each decision’s unique context. How have scenario analysis or Monte Carlo simulations changed your strategic decisions?Join this channel as a member for new videos, RAW workshops or online courses https://www.rfr.bz/llo0yvm Read more risk management articles at https://www.rfr.bz/llo0yvnWatch the best practical workshops and case studies from RISK AWARENESS WEEK https://www.rfr.bz/llo0yvoDOWNLOAD our risk management book for free. Number 1 in Google search globally with 200000+ downloads https://www.rfr.bz/llo0yvpOr check out online short courses on Udemy https://www.rfr.bz/llo0yvqCheck out awesome risk management quantitative software https://www.rfr.bz/llo0yvr Subscribe to RISK-ACADEMY YouTube channel for more videos

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Risk awareness is closer than you think, have fun with the latest merch https://www.rfr.bz/llo0mx7 #RAW2022